The Basics

Call

A public, permanent price prediction. You pick an asset, direction (LONG or SHORT), duration, conviction, allocation, and catalyst. Once submitted, it cannot be edited or deleted.

LONG

A prediction that the asset's price will go up. You profit if the exit price is higher than the entry price.

SHORT

A prediction that the asset's price will go down. You profit if the exit price is lower than the entry price.

Duration

How long the call stays open: 7, 14, 30, 60, or 90 days. After this period, exit begins within a random 24-hour window.

Conviction

How confident you are, rated 1 to 5. Higher conviction should predict bigger returns — your calibration score measures whether it actually does.

Allocation

What percentage of your portfolio you'd commit to this call (1-100%). Total allocation across all open calls can't exceed 100%.

Catalyst

What's driving your thesis: Technical, Macro, Narrative, On-chain, Fundamental, or Contrarian. Affects your replicability score.

Thesis

Your written reasoning for the call. Optional but improves replicability. Why do you think this trade works?

Entry/Exit Window

After you submit, the actual entry price is captured at a random point within 24 hours. Same for exit. This prevents timing manipulation.

Call States

QUEUED ENTRY

Call submitted, waiting for a random entry price within 24 hours. Direction may be hidden (Grand Reveal).

OPEN

Entry price locked. The call is live and counting down to expiry.

QUEUED EXIT

Duration expired, waiting for a random exit price within 24 hours.

CLOSED

Exit price captured. Return calculated. The call is now part of your permanent record.

Five Metrics

Expectancy

Average return per call, weighted by allocation. The headline number. Higher is better. A 10% expectancy means your calls average +10% return.

Hit Rate

Percentage of closed calls that were profitable. 60% means 6 out of 10 calls made money.

Consistency

How steady are your returns? Measures drift between your recent 30-day average and your all-time average. Low drift = high score. A hot streak followed by a crash scores low.

Replicability

Could anyone follow your strategy? Scores three factors: duration (medium-term scores best), allocation sizing (moderate is ideal), and catalyst clarity (Fundamental/Macro score higher than Technical/Narrative).

Calibration

Does your conviction predict your success? If your 5/5 conviction calls win more than your 1/5 calls, you're well-calibrated. Measures whether you know when you're right.

Max Drawdown

Worst peak-to-trough decline in your track record. If your best streak hit +50% and then dropped to +20%, your drawdown is -30%. Closer to 0% is better.

Final Score

Weighted combination: 35% Expectancy + 25% Replicability + 20% Consistency + 20% Calibration. Used for tier placement. Range: 0-100.

Post-Call Analysis

Direction Grade (D)

Was the thesis right? Measures return magnitude. A big win = high grade, a big loss = low grade.

Sizing Grade (S)

Was the allocation appropriate? Winning big with large allocation = great. Losing big with large allocation = blunder.

Calibration Grade (C)

Did conviction match the outcome? High conviction + big win = brilliant. High conviction + loss = miss.

Overall Grade

Weighted composite: 50% Direction + 25% Sizing + 25% Calibration. Grades: Brilliant, Great, Good, Miss, Blunder.

Call Category

Classification based on outcome. Wins: The Sniper, Moonshot, Conviction Play, The Grinder, Solid Read. Losses: The Capitulation, The Crater, Saw It Coming, Almost Had It, Slow Bleed, The Humbling, The Miss.

Tiers & Progression

Performance Tiers

Based on final score: Iron (0-19), Bronze (20-34), Silver (35-49), Gold (50-64), Diamond (65-79), Master (80+). Requires 10+ closed calls.

Demotion Shield

After reaching a new tier, you keep it for 10 calls even if your score temporarily drops. Protects against bad-luck variance.

Loyalty Status

Activity-based badges: Bronze (5+ calls), Silver (20+ calls, 7+ active days), Gold (50+ calls, 30+ active days).

Placement Period

First 5 calls each season. Losses are zeroed for scoring — you can find your footing without tanking your score.

Seasonal Reset

At season end, 40% of your peak score carries forward as a seed into the next season. Higher peak = better starting position.

Act Rank Badge

Triangle visualization of your last 25 closed calls. Each diamond is colored by result: gold (10%+ win), green (win), grey (breakeven), red (loss), dark red (-15%+ loss).

Social & Gameplay

Beat the Machine

How many of the 6 benchmark actors you're outperforming in expectancy. Shown as X/6 on your profile and leaderboard.

Shadow Prediction

Spectator game: predict WIN or LOSS on any open call. No account needed. Your accuracy is tracked on the shadow leaderboard.

Pick 'Em

Daily game: 5 calls closing soon. Predict WIN or LOSS on each. Points for correct picks. Leaderboard tracks best predictors.

Bounty / Fade

Take the opposite side of someone's open call. If the caller loses, you "win" the bounty. Public contrarian signal.

Callout

Public challenge: dare someone to make a call on a specific asset. Auto-answered when they submit a matching call.

Copy-on-Record

Declare you're following a creator's next call. Public, on the record. Shows how many people are copying someone.

Mirror Match

When two creators bet opposite directions on the same asset within 48 hours. Auto-detected. One wins, one loses.

Rivalry

Auto-detected based on: overlapping asset picks, opposing directions, similar skill level, and mirror match history.

Heat Check

Available after 3+ consecutive wins. Tags your call as a "hot streak" bet. Orange badge on your profile.

Grand Reveal

During the entry window, your call's direction and thesis are hidden from everyone. Revealed when the entry price locks.

League

Private, invite-only leaderboard. Create one, share the code. Includes benchmark actors for reference. Weekly head-to-head matchups.

Season Pledge

Pick who you think will win the season. Locked in, can't be changed. Correct picks earn an oracle badge.

Prediction Chain

Roguelike progression: consecutive winning calls advance you through Scout → Sharpshooter → Sniper tiers with tightening constraints and increasing score multipliers. One loss breaks the chain.

Streak

Consecutive days with activity (not winning — just showing up). Freezes earned every 7 days protect against 1-day gaps.

Special Recognitions

Alpha Moments

Legendary events. The Sniper (big win, high conviction, big allocation). The Lone Wolf (contrarian win against majority). The Comeback (win after 3+ losses). Photo Finish (resolved within 0.5% of breakeven). Against All Odds (low conviction, huge return). The Maximalist (max conviction, 80%+ allocation, win).

Bad Beats

Spectacular losses that deserve recognition. The Magnificent Crater (high conviction, big allocation, big loss). Brilliantly Wrong (good grades but still lost). The All-In Wipeout (huge allocation, big loss). The Slow Death (60+ days bleeding). The Whisker (lost by less than 1%).

CPI (Crowd Positioning Index)

Real-time sentiment for each asset. Aggregates direction and conviction from all open calls. Range: -100 (all SHORT) to +100 (all LONG).

Benchmark Actors

Bitcoin Ben

The True Believer. Always BTC, always LONG, always 100% allocation, always max conviction. The simplest possible strategy.

Index 8

The Machine. Top 8 assets by market cap, equally weighted at 12.5% each. The "just own the market" baseline.

The Blood Buyer

The Contrarian. Only buys when the Fear & Greed Index shows extreme fear. Your panic is their entry signal.

No-Edge Ned

The Clown. Cycles through retail FOMO moods: pump chasing, knife catching, crowd following, unit bias. The anti-benchmark. If you lose to Ned, there's a problem.

The Hype Rider

The Momentum Chaser. Follows CoinGecko trending coins. Whatever's hot, they're in. Shameless and reactive.

Astrology Al

The Mystic. Makes calls based on lunar phases, zodiac seasons, and planetary days. Zero external data — pure celestial mechanics.